Technology Adoption Curve

It explains the spread of ideas.

Law of Diffusion is the real name but I’ll be using Technology Adoption Curve for the purpose of clarity as there is a similar law in Physics as well (Fick’s Law of Diffusion).

What is it anyway ?

Our population is divided into 5 categories :

• Innovators (2.5%) — They are the guys who basically pursue new ideas & invent new stuff like Edison was an innovator.
• Early Adopters(13.5%) — They are early to recognize new ideas & are willing to adopt them simply because they can see the potential.They trust their gut as their decisions aren’t driven by price/usability etc.
• Early Majority(34%) — They are more practical minded.They sit back,relax & simply take feedback from the Early Adopters as they do not want to experiment on any new stuff in the market.
• Late Majority(34%) — They are 1 step ahead of Early Majority..They wait till Early Majority give their reviews as this section does not really trust their gut decision at all.
• Laggards(16%) — They are not at all preferable for the market.They are the ones who use smartphone only because rotary phones are no longer available in the market.

Why is it relevant ?

To have loyal customer base.

Let me explain to you what happens if you start from the wrong side of the curve and come up with a revolutionary technology like Smartphone.

Just see how it fails. And you’ll believe me.

STAGE 1: First you go to Laggard Section.

• You — Hey Grandpa…See what I got for you.A new Smartphone !!
• Grandpa — Yeah kid good for you…I already have my old phone…It works just fine…Thank you.

That just 16% market you lost.Never mind let’s move forward.

STAGE 2: Now you go to Late Majority Section.

• You — Hey Dad….I want a new smartphone…Could you please buy one for me?!
• Dad —It’s too expensive son….Just wait for some days & the price will go down…I’m telling you.

That right there was 34% market you lost.

Total loss= 50% of the market

Let’s not lose hope.Right?

STAGE 3: You go to Early Majority Section.

• You — I want this new phone that’s trending these days. I assume it could be a bit cheap I guess.
• Friend —Don’t be silly.It’s too expensive and what if you buy it and it fails.I guess we should wait & observe the reviews first.

That sums up to a total of 84% market loss which is pretty demoralizing for any new venture and good enough reason to stop & try something else.

Why did this happen?

Because the users you picked are not loyal.

All they care about was -

• How much is it gonna cost me ?
• What are the reviews ? Can I trust this one ?

Bottom line is that they lack the guts to believe in you.That directly impacts their loyalty towards your products and services.

Just look at his face.That right there is the face of loyalty.

Have you ever wondered why people stand in long queues for buying Apple products ?

Because Apple started with the concept of Think Different.

• Innovators : Steve Jobs & Steve Wozniak were the innovators & Wozniak knew how to make it & Jobs knew how to sell it.They believed that together they could change the world & they reflected it in their products & services.
• Early Adopters : They saw the potential of Apple’s new products.They trusted their gut decisions & went forward to try it out.They wanted to be a part of this revolution.
• Early & Late Majority : The superb reviews form Early Adopters gave them the GO FORWARD signal they were waiting for.They bought the products as they wanted to belong to the community that Thinks Different.
• Laggards : They had no idea what the heck was going on.All they knew was that the phone they used was no longer available in the market.So they had no option but to switch to the new products & services.

Do we belong to just 1 section or several ?

What section you belong to depends on your interest.

• If I buy a new XBox Gaming Set for myself even if it’s expensive, I’m an Early Adopter. Right ?
• But what if I don’t show any interest in buying a new set of football jersey simply because I don’t like football.Does that make me a Laggard ?Probably not.

Conclusion :

• If you want to establish yourself in the market. Just aim on the Early Adopters & try to reflect your why into your what(Apple’s ‘Why’ is Think Different but their ‘What’ keeps on changing from Iphone ,Ipod , Macbook,etc.)
• What category you belong to is totally dependent on your taste.

Thanks for reading.

Fight ON.